Strong demand for single-aisle airplanes
The short- to medium-haul market has been the fastest growing segment of the commercial aviation industry over the past decade, creating a strong demand for single-aisle airplanes. In 2010, 830 new single-aisle airplanes were delivered-the second-largest quantity in a single year. The expansion of low-cost carriers, growth in intra-China flights, and a substantial need for replacement aircraft will keep the demand for single-aisle airplanes strong into the future.
Among the 33,500 airplanes to be delivered over the next 20 years, 23,370 will be single-aisle airplanes. (This is 70 percent of the total number of aircraft, and 48 percent by value.) In addition to growth in this sector of the industry, the demand for new single-aisle airplanes is due to a need to replace older aircraft, such as 737 Classics, early A320s, and MD-80s/90s. It is expected that there will be a wave of single-aisle retirements starting around 2016 as a number of airplanes become 25 years old-a typical retirement age for jet aircraft.
New airplanes drive twin-aisle demand
The imminent introduction of the Boeing 787 Dreamliner, and later of the Airbus A350, is driving the resurgent demand for twin-aisle airplanes, as these new airplanes offer significant efficiency improvements over the aircraft they are replacing. Over the next 20 years, 7,330 new twin-aisle deliveries are expected. This represents 22 percent of total deliveries, or 43 percent of total market value. About 40 percent of the demand for twin aisles will come from the Asia Pacific region. Increasing liberalization and the region's vast geography will promote the opening of new air routes between a growing number of origins and destinations.
Asia leads demand for large airplanes
Approximately 43 percent of large airplane deliveries over the next 20 years are expected to go to Asia, with China and Southeast Asia accounting for most of the delivery demand. The Middle East, with its already substantial backlog of aircraft in this category, accounts for another 22 percent of the large airplane market. The 820 new large airplanes (such as the 747-8 Intercontinental and the A380) forecast to be delivered worldwide represent only 2 percent of total airplane deliveries. Yet with a value of US$270 billion, large airplanes account for 7 percent of the total market value. Nearly half of those airplanes are already on order. A substantial portion of large airplane demand is for freighters, due to their efficiency in serving this market.
