Air transport markets are dynamic: they are always changing. New competitors drive changes to ongoing operations. The development of new markets shifts emphasis into new territories. Although the largest markets will remain, emerging markets will become big enough to bring new influences to the world order in aviation.
Shifting Emphasis
Asia is now expected to need the most new airplanes as well as representing the largest market by value of deliveries. For first time, the value of the European airplane market will be equivalent to that in North America. As the airplane market expands, welcome competition is anticipated from manufacturers in Asia and CIS.
New trade routes and global sourcing will stimulate air cargo markets, for example, with strong growth in Southwest Asia. One-stop-to-anywhere airlines in the Middle East have a highly expansive vision. Investment in infrastructure and airplanes is on a scale to match.
U.S. network carriers are already seeing contraction in domestic operations as they shift emphasis toward more rewarding international routes. Stronger growth in U.S. markets will come back in time. Meanwhile, the current fast pace of growth in Europe is expected to moderate a little.
A Better Balance
Dynamic markets combine to transform the future market toward more balance. In 2027, Asia Pacific and North America will both have around 30 percent of the fleet in service, with a further 25 percent in Europe and CIS. There also will be more balance between different types of airlines and between replacement and growth demand for airplanes.
